Population Dynamics and Community Planning in Fragile Areas of Jariban District, Somalia

1. Introduction

As the world gears for continued focus and planning to achieve the sustainable development goals (SDGs), partners and governments are working towards strengthening national WASH planning, investments and accountability mechanisms to improve service delivery. Planning for Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) service delivery is essential to enable a sustainable development approach and reduce polarity among social groups within each community. There is a need to create an enabling environment between different gender groups to allow different social groups to contribute ideas during WASH planning. Once one group feels restricted, that can generate polarity extending from planning to delivery of WASH services. Polarity can also occur when one social group feels available WASH resources are biased [1]. In fragile contexts, there is a need to comprehend the population dynamics better so that the demographic characteristics can be applied when planning for WASH. In fragile contexts like Somalia, conducting a census is a challenge due to limited funding, competing for priorities to serve lives, inaccessibility of some sites due to security risk and possibly the friction between different states [2, 3, 4].

Population trends vary significantly across regions. Several factors contribute to population acceleration and deceleration, including different fertility levels, international migration and mortality [5]. Emerging pandemics like COVID disrupt population growth trends at local and global levels [6]. The climate change effect is also accelerating or decelerating the population. In the US, flooding events resulted in a nonlinear population increase [7]. Understanding population dynamics is also important because it helps in predicting carbon emissions, since it relatively results in carbon emissions. Estimating population trajectories remains essential, and the study sought to find ways to estimate populations at a localised level.

The chapter examines how population dynamics determine community WASH planning in fragile areas, particularly at the village level. There have been population estimates in Somalia since 1975 [8]. The population estimates established in 1975 forecast subsequent year’s population at a growth rate of approximately 3% [9]. Somalia has not had a census due to access challenges, lack of financial resources, wars and friction between the State and Federal governments [4, 10]. Population prediction had been at district, regional and national levels, and no estimates for the year to come had been made at the village level. However, village registers have both the host population and displaced people living on the peripherals. The population numbers are regularly updated as village leadership always vet people to understand the origin of migrants and establish reasons why they settle in their villages.

2. Methodology

Each household questionnaire had a consent section, allowing participants to express consent to administer. The University of Venda approved the ethical clearance for the research under project number SARDF/20/IRD/02/0704. The Ministry of Planning, Economic Development and International Cooperation in the Puntland State of Somalia issued the research approval letter (MoPEDIC 067/02/20). The village leaders provided verbal consent for village participants.

The study was conducted in the Jariban district of Puntland State in Somalia. The Puntland State of Somalia has remained unstable due to the activities of localised clan conflicts. Due to the prolonged drought and localised conflicts, approximately 130,000 people were internally displaced in 2015 [11]. Jariban district, in particular, was, until recently, a stronghold of pirates. The latter situation hampers recovery efforts and leaves most people with limited access to essential services (Figure 1).

Social demographic data was collected using a comprehensive household survey in which structured questionnaires were administered among the sampled 167 community members of the Jariban district. The quantitative data collection was assisted by using the Open Data Kit (ODK) platform with Global Positioning System (GPS) to support the geo-referencing of survey locations. Open Data Kit (ODK) is a free and open-source set of tools that helps authorise and seamlessly manage the field data collection process. The quantitative demographic data was then subjected to descriptive statistics, regression and horizontal analysis. Population data for each village was based on the 2019 village registers. The village registers are the most reliable population data source for Somalia. UN agencies and national and international organisations use them for planning services and other humanitarian assistance.

3. Results

The population was segregated into boys (males below 18 years), men (males above 18 years), girls (females below 18 years) and women (females above 18 years). The village registers data for 2019 show that the study area’s population comprised 22.8% females, 19.3% males, 26.2% boys and 31.7% girls, as shown in Figure 2.

Balibusile had the highest population, while Caracaso had the lowest, representing 25% and 7% of the total population. Of the 167 respondents (household survey), 96.6% were females and 3.4% were males. The Focus Group Discussions (FGD) gathered the community perspectives on WASH service delivery in 2019 and how the needs could be addressed. Thirty-eight FGDs were conducted (two per village). The participants for the 38 FGDs are segregated, as shown in Figure 3.

Whereas the instruction was made that all social groups within the community had to be represented, it came out that men dominated in numbers in the FGDs. When the numbers for each village were segregated, it came out that only Booc village had more women than men. In Seemade, Hayaanle, Dhobocantuug and Dhinowda villages, no girls participated. The culture of gender impartiality is dominant at all ages; men (51.11%) dominate women (25.83%). On the same note, boys (11.94%) dominate girls (11.11%) in FGD representation. In terms of population numbers, it came out that women constitute 22.83% of the population and men 19.28% of the population. However, when asked to select representatives to make decisions on WASH issues in their villages, only 25.83% of women and 51.11% of men were involved.

Once the population numbers were collected from the village registers, estimates for the coming years were conducted. The author compared how village population growth is estimated using a fixed annual growth rate of 3% or regression and predictive equations [9]. The future population numbers had to be estimated since the number of people also determines the investment needed in an area and the ultimate service delivery. Correlations and regression analysis were conducted on variables to develop a predictive equation: total households, number of males and number of females. Analysis results show that there is a significant relationship between numbers of males (.981), females (.994) and total households (.992) in predicting future population (Table 1).

Despite a negative coefficient between the number of males and the total population, the other two variables, the number of females and total households, were significant, thus allowing a more likely predictive equation. The coefficients were used to derive a predictive equation. The prediction equation for estimating population numbers for the coming year is derived from the following formula;

Prediction of the village population:

The predictive equation was then used to estimate the futuristic population for the coming year (2020), as shown in Table 2.

The population numbers estimated using the two methods were subjected to horizontal trend analysis, as shown in Figure 4.

The percentages in trend analysis show that the 2020 estimated population (using predictive equations) was to increase in most villages except for Salax, Ceelbardaale, Seemade, Booc and Mayle where the population numbers would likely reduce. However, when using the annual growth rate of 3%, all villages would have an increased population, which is unrealistic in a fragile context.

4. Discussions

Balibusile has three boreholes, and this may explain why it has the highest population numbers since the concentration of population in the village is attributed to the services it provides to the people and the effects of drought have been noted to influence this pattern and demonstrated in earlier studies [1, 12, 13]. The vast disparity is surprising in a community, such as Jariban; hence, I explored possible explanations. The low number of males could result from the call for men to training camps as they prepare for continued clan conflicts and battles. Previous studies have noted that men from poor, landless, low-income households are more likely to migrate [14]. The prevalence of female-headed households could result from men migrating to the diaspora to look for employment, as noted in an earlier study by Sunata and Abdulla [15]. Some man could have migrated for several months with their livestock to look for pastures, as Somalis are primarily pastoralists. Unlike in earlier studies where males dominate females in decision-making [16, 17], females dominate males. However, further explorations showed that women are more influential than males when making decisions in private spaces. The finding of male dominance is confirmed by earlier studies, which noted that Somalia is a patriarchal society where males dominate females in social, religious and economic fields [17, 18, 19]. Recent studies have also indicated that stigmatisation towards women and girls is rife [18, 19, 20, 21].

In fragile contexts, where determinants of population growth are complex to ascertain, population estimates could be convenient but also bring the risk of under or over-budgeting for service delivery. In America, population growth has been in line with geometrical progression; this represented the rate of increase to be expected under conditions of land abundance until all the good land has been occupied and only marginal soils would remain [3]. It should be noted that growth in a fragile context is regardless of abundant or fruitful land. As such, population growth is not only influenced by the prevalence of peace and access to resources.

Gradual population growth at the village level is, therefore, unrealistic. Early studies noted that a 1% point increase in Gross Domestic Product per capita growth over 10 years increases countries’ population growth by around 0.1 percentage points [22]. However, predicted population numbers show that GDP and the available number of households, males and females, can influence population increase or decrease. Population growth can be either exponential or hyperbolic [23].

Whereas the population may grow slowly over time, in fragile contexts, the risks, such as fighting and drought, may result in a sudden increase or decrease in population for any village. Migration inflow or outflow also regulates the number of people in communities, resulting in a sudden increase or decrease [24]. When WASH services are planned, it is crucial to project a sudden increase in service delivery rather than only preparing for the available population numbers. Population numbers of Arab countries have been growing as a result of both natural growth and migration [25]. The movement in Arab countries, which have similar religious, social, physical and climatic conditions to Somalia, requires further investigation, especially regarding migration flows [26]. Reducing child mortality and general improvements in health have contributed to population growth [27].

The population changes, as shown from the predictive equations, indicate displacements that are rife in fragile areas. Reasons for movement in Somalia include food insecurity, water stress and scarcity, slow and sudden-onset disasters, violence and conflict, among other things [28]. Depending on the type, severity and scale of crises, it came up that some villages in the Jariban district had more population concentration than others. Displacement numbers and flows are supposed to be considered when service delivery planning is conducted. If current or anticipated migration flows are not factored in, available resources can be exploited at a faster rate than would have been anticipated during planning. The concentration of populations could also present resource distribution inequality between locations [1, 14]. A study by Sunata and Abdulla [15] noted that the availability of education, water and food services attracts people to an area. Globally, in 2015, 247 million migrants had left their homes for another country [29]. The movement of people then depends on the foreign policy strategy between the receiving and sending countries. In the Mediterranean alone, more than 76,000 migrants and refugees made their way to Europe in the first 6 weeks of 2016—nearly 10 times more than the previous year [15, 29].

5. Conclusions and recommendations

The chapter examines the importance of understanding population dynamics in community WASH planning. During private involvement (household surveys), women dominate men. This reflects that women are custodians of development and emergency service provisions. In fragile contexts, more women should participate in WASH planning because they spend more time with children. Men dominate in numbers at public platforms (such as FGDs). Therefore, including men’s and women’s numbers is critical in planning services and predicting localised population growth. Whereas gradual population growth has worked well for estimating populations at the provincial and national levels, estimating populations at the village level (for the year to come) in fragile contexts should be done using predictive equations rather than population growth rates. It also came out that growth is not only influenced by the prevalence of peace and access to resources. Population growth rates at a national scale may misrepresent that growth is linear when, in fact, many factors, such as disaster-induced migration, result in some villages losing population and others gaining exponentially. The localised population estimation likely provides realistic numbers that can be used for WASH service provision.

It is recommended that we ascertain how droughts, wars, searching for pastures, water availability and security significantly contribute to population growth in each studied village. Furthermore, more studies should investigate if village population estimates align with national population estimates of 3% currently used by the World Population Review. It further recommended that, when planning for WASH, there is a need to consider the varied life spans, development index and mortality rates. The movement in Arab countries, which have similar religious, social, physical and climatic conditions to Somalia, requires further investigation, especially regarding migration flows.